We were all trained early on to never pitch a Queen. The reason is simple: because half the deck can hit a Queen.
Yet you find yourself sitting across the Kardball table from a pitcher who throws you a Queen on his first pitch. What the heck is going on here?
Strong Defense
Because the Queen is so easy to hit, a Pitcher with any skill at all would have to be relying on an outfield full of the Queen factors: A, 2, 3, 4, 6 and Q. What are the chances they have all the factors? (Pretty slim.) What are the chances they have some of the factors? (Pretty good.)
A brazen Queen pitched first to any batter implies a strong defense. As the inning wears on, you'll have to rely on your card count to help predict where the weaknesses are.
Calculated Risk
If you didn't swing at a six, it stands to reason you probably don't have its factors. This tells a Pitcher you may not have a Queen's factors either. Seeing a high even card on the third pitch is not unusual, and its one of the safer opportunities for a Pitcher to ditch a Queen. Conventional batting wisdom suggests that a Queen will be the first strike card you dump, not the last one you hold.
The Walk Dilemma
Depending on the circumstances, your opponent might be forced to play a Queen in order to avoid giving you a free base on balls. If he pitched a seven, then a King, and now he's holding a 7, Q, K in his hand, the Queen might be the least of the evils. Consider this as a possible explanation for a Queen on the third pitch.
On the contrary, dumping two Queens on the same batter is the perfect solution if an intentional walk is of potential value to a defense.
The Null Hypothesis
Of course, just to make things interesting, there may be absolutely no logic whatsoever behind the Queen pitch. It just happens, in a momentary lapse of reason. Like that time you bought the El DeBarge CD during Spring Break.
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