Pitching Queens ... What Does it Mean?

We were all trained early on to never pitch a Queen.  The reason is simple: because half the deck can hit a Queen.

Yet you find yourself sitting across the Kardball table from a pitcher who throws you a Queen on his first pitch.  What the heck is going on here?

Strong Defense

Because the Queen is so easy to hit, a Pitcher with any skill at all would have to be relying on an outfield full of the Queen factors: A, 2, 3, 4, 6 and Q.  What are the chances they have all the factors?  (Pretty slim.)  What are the chances they have some of the factors? (Pretty good.)

A brazen Queen pitched first to any batter implies a strong defense. As the inning wears on, you'll have to rely on your card count to help predict where the weaknesses are.

Calculated Risk

If you didn't swing at a six, it stands to reason you probably don't have its factors. This tells a Pitcher you may not have a Queen's factors either.  Seeing a high even card on the third pitch is not unusual, and its one of the safer opportunities for a Pitcher to ditch a Queen.  Conventional batting wisdom suggests that a Queen will be the first strike card you dump, not the last one you hold.

The Walk Dilemma

Depending on the circumstances, your opponent might be forced to play a Queen in order to avoid giving you a free base on balls. If he pitched a seven, then a King, and now he's holding a 7, Q, K in his hand, the Queen might be the least of the evils.  Consider this as a possible explanation for a Queen on the third pitch.

On the contrary, dumping two Queens on the same batter is the perfect solution if an intentional walk is of potential value to a defense.

The Null Hypothesis

Of course, just to make things interesting, there may be absolutely no logic whatsoever behind the Queen pitch.  It just happens, in a momentary lapse of reason.  Like that time you bought the El DeBarge CD during Spring Break.

Batting a Sacrifice

Though not exactly like the sacrifice bunt in baseball, there is a kind of sacrifice play in Kardball, in which a batter intentionally makes an out in order to give his team an advantage.

Forcing the Ace

Since it's not quite as predictable as the play it's named after, perhaps a better name would be "forcing the Ace." Preferably while there are still no outs, a batter matches a pitch card exactly, seeking either of two outcomes: either he scores a home run, or he forces the defense to play an Ace.  Getting rid of that Ace puts the next two batters in an excellent position to score.

Getting dealt even one Ace on defense is statistically unlikely. (Although we've seen outfields that were dealt two or more Aces, it's rare.)  So it will take another swing at a home run for the table to know for sure if there's another Ace lurking in the outfield. 

Once the offense realizes there are no Aces in the field, the home run derby begins. It will take some smart pitching and a fair amount of luck to stop a scoring rally.

Sacrifice Early

The ideal time to sacrifice is before the first out. If the first batter forces an Ace, you can still survive yet another sacrifice (if necessary) to get the defensive guard down. In fact, a good sacrifice strategy would be to sac early and sac often: the longer you let the Pitcher draw cards, the more chances he gets to pull another Ace.

No Fighting the "Force"

While there are cases in which the defense might intentionally give up a base hit in order to conserve a strategic outfield card, this is no such case.  Playing the Ace is a no-brainer, and that's that.

And that fact means that a well-executed sacrifice is one of the best angles a team has for driving runs off the luck of the deal.  The odds suggest the defense won't have more than one Ace at the first batter-up. One or two quick swings at a matching pitch card takes the upper hand. Ace or no Ace, the longer an inning drags on against a wily defense, the more their skill can influence the flow.