And you thought YOUR cards were bad! Hah!
Look at Other Batters' Cards
When you're on the Kardball offense (and might I say: who isn't on the Kardball offense? Am I right?) ...
When you're on the Kardball offense, you don't get to see many cards. Nine at once, at the most. What can you do with this information?
Detect Weaknesses
If your batters are long on anything, bat the complement. For example, if you see three fours in batters' hands, swing a two at an eight (or a three at a Queen) if you get the chance.
Slugging for home runs is always a good idea, and seeing any Aces at all in your batters' hands makes it an imperative.
Multiple Twos or Threes in the lineup tells you to try one of them against a Four or Nine, since you have one of the remaining three square factors already off the table. Capiche?
Predict and Plan
What, not a lot of prime numbers on your side? You can bet they'll be coming at you. Hold back a King or Jack instead of dumping it in the usual "strike high" fashion. It might come in handy if the pitcher gets distracted by that Carl's Jr. ad that just aired on your NASCAR channel.
Sitting on mostly Tens and over means your small ball won't work this time out. Try holding your high evens, since the pitcher might lob a couple of these with the idea of fielding off the combination ... but surprise! You'll come back with a match that might leave him wanting an Ace! Oh yes you did!
Friday, August 19, 2011
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Sorta Suicide Steal
Today we ponder stealing home base. To set the stage, imagine a runner on third base with zero or one out. The pitcher throws a multiple of that runner's card, and then the wheels start turning ...
The Stealing Scene
Any experienced, sober pitcher is going to avoid giving a runner a chance to steal, if he possibly can help it, unless his defense can match that runner's card for an out. In the latter case, he might dare that runner to steal, and try to get him off the table.
For example, with a two on base after doubling off a ten pitch, and with a two in the outfield, the pitcher throws even numbers to entice that deuce to steal. If he tries to steal, or runs on the next hit, he's toast.
How the Offense Sees It
Is there any way for the offense to know if a steal is a "sure thing"? Maybe. If a batter gets on base by playing the square root of a pitch card, there is reason to believe the defense does not have the matching card.
For example, if a three card triples off a nine pitch, it's reasonable to assume the defense does not have a three. If they did, they would have played it for the out, right? Right?
Now if the pitcher throws a six, nine or queen, that guy on third has a good shot at stealing home base successfully, if there's truly no three in the outfield. And there's no three out there, right? Right?
The Suicide Part
In our three-on-third scenario here, we say it's "reasonable to assume" that stealing home will succeed. Yes, the odds are good that the defense doesn't have a three to stop the steal, but those odds get worse every time the pitcher draws another card. If the pitcher can hold back that runner on base with a string of tough pitches, maybe even a strike out or two, the less tempting the steal becomes.
And after the pitcher has turned over a few cards, if a six or nine or queen should happen to come out, then what? Is it a golden opportunity for a stolen run? Or is it suicide?
The Stealing Scene
Any experienced, sober pitcher is going to avoid giving a runner a chance to steal, if he possibly can help it, unless his defense can match that runner's card for an out. In the latter case, he might dare that runner to steal, and try to get him off the table.
For example, with a two on base after doubling off a ten pitch, and with a two in the outfield, the pitcher throws even numbers to entice that deuce to steal. If he tries to steal, or runs on the next hit, he's toast.
How the Offense Sees It
Is there any way for the offense to know if a steal is a "sure thing"? Maybe. If a batter gets on base by playing the square root of a pitch card, there is reason to believe the defense does not have the matching card.
For example, if a three card triples off a nine pitch, it's reasonable to assume the defense does not have a three. If they did, they would have played it for the out, right? Right?
Now if the pitcher throws a six, nine or queen, that guy on third has a good shot at stealing home base successfully, if there's truly no three in the outfield. And there's no three out there, right? Right?
The Suicide Part
In our three-on-third scenario here, we say it's "reasonable to assume" that stealing home will succeed. Yes, the odds are good that the defense doesn't have a three to stop the steal, but those odds get worse every time the pitcher draws another card. If the pitcher can hold back that runner on base with a string of tough pitches, maybe even a strike out or two, the less tempting the steal becomes.
And after the pitcher has turned over a few cards, if a six or nine or queen should happen to come out, then what? Is it a golden opportunity for a stolen run? Or is it suicide?
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